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Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession …
Jan 31, 2025 · Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession …
- Phone: (314) 444-3733
See results only from fred.stlouisfed.orgNBER based Recession I…
Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for …
What Is the Probability of a …
I follow the practice from a regular forecast produced by the Federal Reserve Bank …
Smoothed U.S. Recession P…
View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, …
What Dates Are Used for t…
The NBER recession data are available at https://www.nber.org/research/data/us …
US Recession Probability (I:USRPEM) - YCharts
26 rows · Feb 5, 2025 · US Recession Probability is at 23.18%, compared to 29.40% last …
- Change from Last Month: 21.16%
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- Region: United States
- Value from Last Month: 29.40%
See all 26 rows on ycharts.comDATE VALUE January 31, 2026 23.18% December 31, 2025 29.40% November 30, 2025 33.56% October 31, 2025 42.05%
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession …
Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, USA, peak, …
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - FRED | St. Louis Fed
Jan 31, 2025 · Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and …
- Phone: (314) 444-3733
Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart - Macrotrends
73 rows · Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart. Shows the daily level of the federal …
See all 73 rows on www.macrotrends.netYEAR AVERAGE YIELD YEAR OPEN YEAR HIGH 2025 4.33% 4.33% 4.33% 2024 5.15% 5.33% 5.33% 2023 5.03% 4.33% 5.33% 2022 1.68% 0.08% 4.33%
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator - Federal …
Comprehensive list of research on the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions.
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Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based …
Jan 31, 2025 · Graph and download revisions to economic data for from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.
Recession Probability Models – March 2025
6 days ago · For comparison purposes, it showed a 23.1754% probability through January 2025, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by …
Federal Reserve Board - Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and ...
Jul 12, 2022 · Probability of Recession Implied by NTFS, the Policy Gap, and Inflation Slope. Note: This chart depicts fitted recession probabilities, conditional on being in an economic …
What Dates Are Used for the U.S. Recession Bars?
The NBER recession data are available at https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions. The monthly dates for the peaks and troughs are represented …
United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP …
Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession …
What Is the Probability of a Recession? The Message from Yield …
Sep 7, 2023 · I follow the practice from a regular forecast produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which uses the spread between the 10-year and three-month Treasury rates. …
What is a recession? Here’s why anxiety is rising about falling into ...
1 day ago · Typically, a recession occurs when some short of shock hits the economy, such as the pandemic in 2020, or the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007. ... The Federal Reserve …
How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in …
2 days ago · Just 20 days ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs. The US economy appeared to be growing at a solid pace. And a recession was nowhere in sight. Now, the R …
Visualized: Past Interest Rate Cut Cycles and 2024 Forecasts
Jan 31, 2024 · This visualization from our 2024 Global Forecast Series uses data from the Federal Reserve to chart past interest rate cut cycles and visualizes forecasts by top banks and …
NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the …
Mar 4, 2025 · Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 …
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth - Federal Reserve Bank …
Jan 25, 2025 · We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. …
Medium- and Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Unchanged; …
2 days ago · NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the February 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that …
US Recession Indicators - St. Louis Fed - Federal Reserve Bank …
Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Federal Reserve Board - Financial and Macroeconomic …
Jun 21, 2022 · Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author's calculations. Last Update: June 21, 2022.
Charting the Economy - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Dec 20, 2024 · Download the data file for this chart. The 12 districts of the Federal Reserve have experienced different annual inflation rates over the past year. Northeastern districts had the …
Are We Nearing A Recession? The Odds Are Rising But Not Yet …
4 days ago · Perhaps the most significant data point signaling a possible recession is the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which forecasts U.S. economic …
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - FRED | St. Louis Fed
Mar 3, 2025 · View an estimate of the probability of recession based on employment, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities
Jul 12, 2022 · Using the variables from the NTFS decomposition, we estimate a probit model that predicts the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy over the next twelve months.
Explainer: What's a recession and why is rising anxiety about it ...
1 day ago · The Federal Reserve ended up cutting its benchmark interest rate three times in 2019 to shore up the economy. Other things also could take a toll on the economy: Elon Musk’s …
Is the U.S. Heading Into a Recession Under Trump? | TIME
6 days ago · The Atlanta Federal Reserve model has also suggested that economic growth might be negative in Q1 2025. Yet, there’s some disagreement across the economic spectrum as to …
How To Prepare For a Recession in 2025 - Newsweek
1 day ago · Last week's GDP forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta pointed to a contraction in annualized growth to -2.8 percent for the first quarter of 2025. ... author of …
Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock sell-off ...
2 days ago · Major stock indexes tanked Monday, continuing a sell-off that gathered steam last week as rattled investors began zeroing in on the prospect of a significant falloff in U.S. growth …
The State of U.S. Wealth Inequality | St. Louis Fed
Oct 22, 2024 · The Federal Reserve Board creates the DFAs by combining data from the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and the quarterly Financial Accounts of the United …
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