The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

The 2024 general election of 4th July looks set to be a dramatic about-turn in British public opinion. But by how much, and where? The Britain Predicts forecast model tells all. Here’s how the seats would split in an election held today. Our model, set up in 2021, has form for accuracy in parliamentary by-elections.

The 2024 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024 to elect 650 members of Parliament to the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The opposition Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, defeated the governing Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, in a landslide victory.

Notably, the 2024 general election was the most unrepresentative in UK history, with Labour's number of votes being fewer than it received in 2019. The result was a landslide win for Labour and a historic loss for the Conservatives.